RESEARCH
State Action Plan for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions for North Carolina
What is the project?
The Department of Geography and Planning at Appalachian State University prepared a state action plan analyzing the options that might be used to reduce North Carolina's greenhouse gas emissions. Work on the project began January 1, 1998, and was completed on January 6, 2000. This action plan is an innovative top-down/bottom-up approach to reducing emissions that builds on the Phase I North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory completed by the Department in 1996 (See description on the web page.)
The state action plan was funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, State and Local Outreach Program and the Energy Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce. Due to concern about global warming and the proposals to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 7% below 1990 levels by 2010, this USEPA program encourages states to be proactive in analyzing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Most states have completed state greenhouse gas inventories, and approximately 20 states are working on, or have completed, action plans that identify cost-effective options for reducing emissions.
What are greenhouse gases and global warming?
Energy from the sun heats the Earth's surface and drives the earth's weather and climate; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone depleting compounds, and nitrous oxides) trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse. These gases are useful, because without this natural "greenhouse effect," temperatures would be much lower than they are now, and life would not be possible. Due to the warming actions of greenhouse gases, the earth's average temperature is a more hospitable 60°F. However, problems may arise when the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases. In recent years, major concern with global warming and climate change has centered on anthropogenic-induced changes in the gaseous and particulate composition of the atmosphere.
What effects could greenhouse gas actions have on the Earth, and specifically North Carolina?
Although some disagreement exists in the scientific community, most climate scientists anticipate real risks from global climate change. Most scientists agree that this century is the hottest since at least A.D. 1400 and that the nine hottest years, since record keeping began in the late 19th century, have all occurred since 1987. In fact, the year 1997 has the dubious honor of being the hottest year on record. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the global mean land surface temperature has increased 0.45-0.6°C (0.8-1.0°F) in the last century. Although estimates vary, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that global temperatures will increase by 1 degree to 4 degrees C by the year 2100. These increases are not projected to occur because of natural causes, but rather because of human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
As the rate of evaporation increases because of global warming, the world will likely experience more frequent and intense floods and droughts. Sea level rises of between 6 and 37 inches are projected by the year 2100. Other potential negative consequences of global warming include increased range and transmissions of some infectious diseases, higher mortality rates due to heat, higher rates of respiratory illnesses, changing weather effects on agriculture, changes to the aquatic food chain and stresses on natural ecosystems.
North Carolina's economy may be extremely vulnerable to climate change. Sectors such as agriculture, food products, and forestry products are at high risk from climate change and they comprise a large part of our state's economy. Rapid industrialization and increasing population in our state will increase North Carolina's share of greenhouse gas emissions. The potential for sea level rise will also cause negative economic impacts in our coastal zones.
The Plan
The following links provide access to the Executive Summary, and to the individual chapters of the final document. The documents are in Adobe Acrobat format, and the Acrobat Reader is required to view these files.
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Chapter One (Introduction)
Chapter Two (Method and Key Assumptions)
Chapter Three (Base Year Analysis and Business-as-Usual Forecast)
Chapter Four (Industrial Sector Strategies)
Chapter Five (Commercial Sector Strategies)
Chapter Six (Residential Sector Strategies)
Chapter Seven (Transportation Sector Strategies)
Chapter Eight (Utility Sector Strategies)
Chapter Nine (Agriculture Sector Strategies)
Chapter Ten (Waste Sector Strategies)
Chapter Eleven (Forest Sector Strategies)
Chapter Twelve (Conclusions)
Appendix A (Background to North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Reductions)
Appendix B
1990 Base Year Summary Report (p. 245)
1990 Base Year Report by Source (p. 246)
1990 Base Year Detailed Report (pp. 247-249)
2010 Target Year Summary Report (p. 250)
2010 Target Year Report by Source (p. 251)
2010 Target Year Detailed Report (pp. 252-254)
2010 Target Year Measures Summary Report (p. 255)
2010 Target Year Measures Detailed Report (pp. 256-259)
2010 Target Year Measures Listing (pp. 260-339)
Who in the Department of Geography and Planning is working on the plan?
The state action plan project included several of the faculty, staff and graduate students in the department. Neal Lineback was the principal investigator and grant manager, with Donna Warmuth, Jennifer DeHart, Richard Crepeau and ten additional researchers participating in the project.
Please contact Neal Lineback at 828-262-7054 with any questions on the project.
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